Bernie Sanders is on a roll. Barack Obama. Clinton also leads Sanders in that category. Hillary Clinton is not winning because of a conspiracy or wrinkle in the time-space continuum. Rather, she benefits from the rules Democrats play by. With eight contests left, is it possible for Sanders to overtake Clinton in the delegate count to win the nomination?
It is theoretically possible, just as it is theoretically possible to drive from Los Angeles to San Francisco in less than two hours — provided you go mph the entire way.
But when delegates were divvied up, Sanders won 18 and Clinton Adding in superdelegates, the results were much closer: Sanders walked away with 19 delegates and Clinton claimed Superdelegates are those who automatically get a seat at the Philadelphia convention and have the liberty to vote for whomever they please. The overwhelming majority are supporting Clinton. Superdelegates are elected officials and other party leaders and activists. They include sitting Democratic governors and members of Congress, past presidents and vice presidents and former chairmen of the Democratic National Committee.
Because Democrats have two competing impulses. On the one hand, they fancy their party a model of inclusiveness and egalitarianism. On the other, they want to win elections. After the party was torn asunder by the Vietnam War — some Democrats believing Vice President Hubert Humphrey had been forced down their throats as the nominee — leaders changed the nominating system to give more say to voters at the grass-roots level. Republican Results ». Alabama Ala.
Alaska Alaska Republican Results ». Arkansas Ark. Colorado Colo. Georgia Ga. Massachusetts Mass. Minnesota Minn. Oklahoma Okla. Tennessee Tenn. Texas Tex. Vermont Vt. Virginia Va. American Samoa A. Democrats Abroad Dem. Kansas Kan. Kentucky Ky. Louisiana La. Maine Me. Nebraska Neb. Puerto Rico Puerto Rico Republicans. Hawaii Hawaii Republican Results ». Idaho Idaho Republican Results ». Michigan Mich. Mississippi Miss. You can just skip to the subheadings of interest. Those numbers include the raw vote counts from the caucus states with the exception of Wyoming and several territories which have not released raw vote counts.
They do include Washington caucus numbers but not its primary vote counts. See methodology below to learn how I resolved the conflicting numbers. Delegate Count by Caucuses and Primaries. Now it gets ugly. There are about , registered independents in New York and about 2.
And the deadline to change party affiliation is six months before the election. But many have questioned whether Sanders truly has enjoyed an advantage in open primary states. The data validates the skepticism. Clinton has won 13 of the 19 open primaries. Moreover, her margin of victory in those open primary states has been higher than in closed primary states.
FiveThirtyEight has come to a similar conclusion using a different methodology. On balance, Clinton does well in either type of primary.
But caucuses? It falls apart for her there. Sanders has performed very well in caucuses. He has won big and often in caucus states. Clinton has squeaked by in two. As noted, I included the caucus raw vote in my popular vote tally. But some Sanders supporters take the argument further. They point out that caucuses have low turnout.
In the end, Clinton is still ahead by more than 2 million votes. In any event, caucus voter turnout is staggeringly low. Average turnout in a caucus state is 3.
Caucuses are the least democratic method to gauge popular will. Clinton supporters complain that she has had to get more votes per delegate than Sanders. They contend that because of various delegate selection rules, especially in caucuses, Sanders is garnering more delegates that he would be entitled to simply based on his share of the vote.
But not for the reasons they think.
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